Some people are shaped by it, while others are broken by it. Since 1775, we have served our nation with the utmost honor, and we see no end in sight.
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Second, events that we think of in hindsight as tremendous shocks that come without warning have often taken months, years, or even longer periods to unravel.
In the time between the weak signals of change and the onset of a deeper crisis, there are often opportunities to prepare and adapt.
In considering how we often collapse time when thinking about the past, I am reminded of a hilarious exchange from the movie happening as quickly as possible, and limiting the damage through timely learning.
The black plague took half a decade to advance from Sicily to the Baltic states.
It is useful to remind ourselves regularly of the capacity of human beings to persist in stupid beliefs in the face of significant, contradictory evidence.
On 22 June, 1941*, the Third Reich launched , a massive invasion of the Soviet Union.
Although the attack is sometimes called a “surprise,” this is misleading. Selector .selector_input_interaction .selector_input. Selector .selector_input_interaction .selector_spinner. The policy, announced Tuesday, also permits Sikh soldiers to maintain their beards and female soldiers to wear their hair in dreadlocks.In the face of mounting evidence that their investment strategy is failing, “the two men simply couldn’t bring themselves to believe that the picture was as dire as the model suggested.” Returning to , the German military spent months building up its forces prior to the attack.Stalin received two conflicting explanations for this.It is more accurate to say that have found its political target so unprepared? The term “black swan event” describes surprises of an especially momentous and nasty type.Popularized by the mathematician Nicholas Nassim Taleb in his 2007 book of the same title, Taleb argued that black swan events have three characteristics: “rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability.” In recent years, the concept of black swan events has gained currency in political, military, and financial contexts.The changes come after West Point graduate and Bronze Star recipient Capt.Simratpal Singh filed a lawsuit against the Defense Department in 2016.More recently, the 2008 financial crisis is already remembered as a “shock” event that surprised global finance.However, the truth is more nuanced, and depressing. Taleb) recognized serious problems long before the fall of Lehman Brothers in September, 2008 (and the onset of a full-blown banking crisis). The clearest early signal of big trouble in the mortgage market came in the March-April, 2007 collapse of New Century Financial, an originator of risky mortgages, almost a year and a half before Lehman’s end, and a year before Bear Stearns was rolled up. In , Bethany Mc Lean and Joe Nocera describe two embattled Bear Stearns asset managers who provide a microcosm of the wishful thinking that made the crisis much worse than it needed to be.