"Over the last year, the Army conducted rigorous evaluation and validation of how commonly requested accommodations would impact force effectiveness," Fanning said.
Although the attack is sometimes called a “surprise,” this is misleading.In considering how we often collapse time when thinking about the past, I am reminded of a hilarious exchange from the movie happening as quickly as possible, and limiting the damage through timely learning.The black plague took half a decade to advance from Sicily to the Baltic states.It is more accurate to say that have found its political target so unprepared? The term “black swan event” describes surprises of an especially momentous and nasty type.Popularized by the mathematician Nicholas Nassim Taleb in his 2007 book of the same title, Taleb argued that black swan events have three characteristics: “rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability.” In recent years, the concept of black swan events has gained currency in political, military, and financial contexts.More recently, the 2008 financial crisis is already remembered as a “shock” event that surprised global finance.However, the truth is more nuanced, and depressing. Taleb) recognized serious problems long before the fall of Lehman Brothers in September, 2008 (and the onset of a full-blown banking crisis). The clearest early signal of big trouble in the mortgage market came in the March-April, 2007 collapse of New Century Financial, an originator of risky mortgages, almost a year and a half before Lehman’s end, and a year before Bear Stearns was rolled up. In , Bethany Mc Lean and Joe Nocera describe two embattled Bear Stearns asset managers who provide a microcosm of the wishful thinking that made the crisis much worse than it needed to be. Content Wrapper:after.hidden.normal.grid_page.grid_page:before,.grid_page:after.grid_page:after.grid_page h3.grid_page h3 a.grid_page h3 a:hover.grid_page h3 a.action_button.grid_page h3 a.action_button:active.grid_page h3 a.action_button:hover.grid_page h3 a.action_button:not(.fake_disabled):hover.grid_page h3 a.action_button:not(.fake_disabled):focus.grid_pagediv. Error Banner.fade_out.modal_overlay.modal_overlay .modal_wrapper.modal_overlay [email protected](max-width:630px)@media(max-width:630px).modal_overlay .modal_fixed_close.modal_overlay .modal_fixed_close:before.modal_overlay .modal_fixed_close:before.modal_overlay .modal_fixed_close:before.modal_overlay .modal_fixed_close:hover:before. The discovery of black swans by European explorers in Australia has proven too tempting to ignore as a powerful metaphor for the problem of induction.When writers invoke the black swan today, they usually refer to Taleb’s meaning, not the older, philosophical sense.